Winning Back the Mineral Value
Report SKU: MMR-00001
South Africa's minerals, from ore to finished product, and the conditions that decide where the value is made
- Lead author
- Victor Mkhaliphi
- Publisher
- McKallip Mineral Research
- Published
- 11 October 2026
- Edition
- Flagship
- SKU
- MMR-00001
Executive abstract
This report asks where South Africa loses value between the mine and the finished product, what stops that value being kept at home, and which mineral commodities can realistically be won back. It is a domestic study built only on public data. Part I sets out what is at stake: jobs lost, value exported raw and processing capacity closed. Part II examines the constraints common to every commodity: electricity, logistics, feed, scale and customers, exploration, skills, enabling inputs, and finance, rights and regulation. Part III assesses nineteen commodities, from chrome to cobalt and graphite, project by project. Part IV sets out the McKallip proposition, what each actor must do and the next twelve months.
Key Analytical Judgments
- 01.Value is leaking, and faster. In 2025, 57% of export value across eleven mineral commodities left as ore or concentrate. Chrome ore exports rose from US$1.1bn to US$5.2bn while ferrochrome exports halved in 2025 alone, to US$1.8bn (chapter 2). (Observed.)
- 02.Plants are idle for want of conditions, not for want of plants. About 2.7 Mt a year of intact capacity stands idle beyond the restarting ferrochrome fleet, and about 1.5 Mt is gone for good. When one negotiated power tariff arrived in 2026, idle ferrochrome furnaces restarted within weeks, and about 3,730 jobs are being recovered (chapters 3 and 12). (Observed.)
- 03.Each condition binds a different step. Power decides which bulk smelters run: the average Eskom price rose from 19.8c to 188.0c a kilowatt-hour between 2007/08 and 2024/25. Rail and ports decide how much leaves: Transnet's rail volume fell from 226 Mt to 168 Mt. Scale and customers decide what new plants can be built (chapters 5, 6 and 7). (Observed.)
- 04.Most jobs that could return are at mines, not plants. Of about 45,600 jobs at 54 closed or idle operations with some prospect, about 80% are at mines. About 24,000 are already returning, at most 21,600 remain to be won and only about 3,300 sit at credible prospects. These are ceilings, not forecasts (chapters 1 and 31). (Conditional.)
- 05.Restoring costs least; building costs most. Disclosed capital per job is about R0.6–1.4m for gold mine restarts and R17–21m at Nyanza's new plants (chapter 1). (Illustrative.)
- 06.The report's position is one line: restore what exists, protect what feeds it, and build only where a customer is waiting. The conditions fall to named institutions, and the common gap is coordination, not ownership (chapters 31 and 32).
Table of Contents
Methodology Summary
Every project claim, company target and forward-looking number carries one of five evidence labels: Observed, Company-stated, Conditional, Not yet established or Illustrative. Each chapter opens with a lead paragraph and a governing thesis; chapters in Parts II to IV end with a verdict and recommendations that name the lever, who acts, the cost and the condition or stop condition. The study uses only dated, named public sources; sources that could not be retrieved or verified are logged and left out, not worked around.
Target Audience
South African policymakers, mining and processing operators, manufacturers, investors, development finance institutions, project developers, researchers and analysts working on mineral beneficiation and industrial development.
Sources & verification
Built entirely on publicly available information. Every quantitative claim is attributed to a dated, named source, listed in each chapter and gathered in Appendix D. The analysis, charts and scenarios are McKallip's own work; no third party's text, tables, charts or photographs are reproduced. Unverified and blocked sources are logged in the Manual Checks workbook.
No itemized citations have been entered for this draft. The statement above is not a substitute for source-level references.
Report updates
This is the current published edition. The publisher will record material revisions here.
Coverage
South Africa only. Evidence as at 9 October 2026. 33 chapters in four parts (four on what is at stake, seven on the constraints, nineteen on commodities and three on the proposal), with five appendices.
All material is for general research and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, legal, engineering-design or feasibility advice.
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